{"program":"Homecastr Build Markets","status":"proposal","as_of":"2026-07-18T00:00:00-04:00","execution_policy":{"status":"proposal_only","liveMarketIds":[],"orderSubmissionEnabled":false,"capitalAllocationEnabled":false,"runtimeOverridesAllowed":false,"scoreAdmissionRegistry":"repository_owned_empty"},"operator_disclaimer":"Homecastr publishes data and resolution specifications. It does not list contracts, accept wagers, or operate an exchange.","source":{"publisher":"U.S. Census Bureau","dataset":"Value of Construction Put in Place","table":"Private construction, seasonally adjusted annual rate","landingPageUrl":"https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/historical_data.html","workbookUrl":"https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/xlsx/privsatime.xlsx","unit":"Millions of U.S. dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)"},"markets":[{"id":"build-race-2026-06","slug":"fastest-growing-construction-category-june-2026","question":"Which U.S. construction category will grow the most in June 2026?","role":"flagship","contractType":"multiple_choice","resolutionMethod":"maximum_month_over_month_growth","status":"proposed","summary":"A monthly category race across the parts of private construction people already debate: data centers, factories, power, housing, transport, and more.","whyItTrades":"One contract captures the whole physical-economy story and gives every major construction narrative a side to take.","resolutionObservation":"The eligible category with the highest percentage change from May 2026 to June 2026.","formula":"((June 2026 SAAR / May 2026 SAAR) - 1) x 100","outcomes":["New single-family","New multifamily","Lodging","General office","Data centers","Financial offices","Commercial","Health care","Educational","Religious","Amusement and recreation","Transportation","Communication","Power","Manufacturing","Tie"],"tiePolicy":"The Tie outcome wins only when two or more eligible categories have the same highest growth rate using the Census-published integer values.","currentRead":"Transportation led the May reference tape at +1.11%; data centers and communication were nearly tied near +0.56%.","currentStats":[{"label":"May leader","value":"Transportation","detail":"+1.11% month over month"},{"label":"Data-center rank","value":"#2","detail":"+0.56% month over month"},{"label":"Eligible outcomes","value":"15 + tie","detail":"Defined Census line items"}],"resolutionSteps":["Retrieve the first official Census private-SA workbook that contains a June 2026 preliminary observation.","Record the retrieval timestamp, workbook SHA-256, original Census URL, and an immutable Homecastr archive URI.","Read the published integer values in millions of dollars SAAR; do not substitute a forecast or later revision.","Calculate the month-over-month percentage change for every eligible category without rounding the intermediate result.","Resolve to the single maximum-growth category, or Tie when the maximum is exactly shared at source precision."],"page_path":"/prediction-markets/fastest-growing-construction-category-june-2026","resolution_source":{"publisher":"U.S. Census Bureau","dataset":"Value of Construction Put in Place","table":"Private construction, seasonally adjusted annual rate","landingPageUrl":"https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/historical_data.html","workbookUrl":"https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/xlsx/privsatime.xlsx","unit":"Millions of U.S. dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)"},"reference_snapshot":{"capturedAt":"2026-07-18T00:00:00-04:00","currentPeriod":"May 2026 preliminary","comparisonPeriod":"April 2026 revised","dataCenterCurrent":59307,"dataCenterPrevious":58977,"dataCenterPriorRecord":59307,"threshold":60000},"eligible_category_mapping":[{"outcome":"New single-family","sourceLabel":"New single family"},{"outcome":"New multifamily","sourceLabel":"New multifamily"},{"outcome":"Lodging","sourceLabel":"Lodging"},{"outcome":"General office","sourceLabel":"General"},{"outcome":"Data centers","sourceLabel":"Data center"},{"outcome":"Financial offices","sourceLabel":"Financial"},{"outcome":"Commercial","sourceLabel":"Commercial (inc. Farm)"},{"outcome":"Health care","sourceLabel":"Health care"},{"outcome":"Educational","sourceLabel":"Educational"},{"outcome":"Religious","sourceLabel":"Religious"},{"outcome":"Amusement and recreation","sourceLabel":"Amusement and Recreation"},{"outcome":"Transportation","sourceLabel":"Transportation"},{"outcome":"Communication","sourceLabel":"Communication"},{"outcome":"Power","sourceLabel":"Power (inc. Gas and Oil)"},{"outcome":"Manufacturing","sourceLabel":"Manufacturing"}],"release_policy":"first_official_release_containing_june_2026_preliminary","evidence_policy":{"required":["retrieved_at","source_url","sha256","immutable_archive_uri"],"note":"The Census source is public but requires a venue-approved oracle or attestation adapter for on-chain settlement."},"execution_policy":{"status":"proposal_only","liveMarketIds":[],"orderSubmissionEnabled":false,"capitalAllocationEnabled":false,"runtimeOverridesAllowed":false,"scoreAdmissionRegistry":"repository_owned_empty"}},{"id":"data-center-fastest-2026-06","slug":"data-centers-fastest-growing-june-2026","question":"Will data centers be the fastest-growing U.S. construction category in June 2026?","role":"companion","contractType":"binary","resolutionMethod":"strict_fastest_growth","status":"proposed","summary":"A clean yes-or-no version of the Build Race for the most visible construction narrative in technology and power markets.","whyItTrades":"It translates the broad category race into a familiar thesis: is the data-center boom actually outrunning every other major construction category?","resolutionObservation":"Whether Data center has a strictly higher May-to-June percentage change than every other eligible category.","formula":"Data center MoM growth > max(other eligible category MoM growth)","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"tiePolicy":"An exact tie for the highest growth rate resolves No.","currentRead":"Data centers were second on the May reference tape, 0.55 percentage points behind transportation and fractionally ahead of communication.","currentStats":[{"label":"May data-center growth","value":"+0.56%","detail":"$58.977B to $59.307B SAAR"},{"label":"May leader","value":"+1.11%","detail":"Transportation"},{"label":"Gap to first","value":"0.55 pp","detail":"Reference month only"}],"resolutionSteps":["Retrieve the first official Census private-SA workbook that contains a June 2026 preliminary observation.","Record the retrieval timestamp, workbook SHA-256, original Census URL, and an immutable Homecastr archive URI.","Read the published integer values in millions of dollars SAAR; do not substitute a forecast or later revision.","Calculate the Data center month-over-month growth rate and every comparator rate without rounding the intermediate result.","Resolve Yes only if Data center is strictly greater than every comparator; otherwise resolve No."],"page_path":"/prediction-markets/data-centers-fastest-growing-june-2026","resolution_source":{"publisher":"U.S. Census Bureau","dataset":"Value of Construction Put in Place","table":"Private construction, seasonally adjusted annual rate","landingPageUrl":"https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/historical_data.html","workbookUrl":"https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/xlsx/privsatime.xlsx","unit":"Millions of U.S. dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)"},"reference_snapshot":{"capturedAt":"2026-07-18T00:00:00-04:00","currentPeriod":"May 2026 preliminary","comparisonPeriod":"April 2026 revised","dataCenterCurrent":59307,"dataCenterPrevious":58977,"dataCenterPriorRecord":59307,"threshold":60000},"eligible_category_mapping":[{"outcome":"New single-family","sourceLabel":"New single family"},{"outcome":"New multifamily","sourceLabel":"New multifamily"},{"outcome":"Lodging","sourceLabel":"Lodging"},{"outcome":"General office","sourceLabel":"General"},{"outcome":"Data centers","sourceLabel":"Data center"},{"outcome":"Financial offices","sourceLabel":"Financial"},{"outcome":"Commercial","sourceLabel":"Commercial (inc. Farm)"},{"outcome":"Health care","sourceLabel":"Health care"},{"outcome":"Educational","sourceLabel":"Educational"},{"outcome":"Religious","sourceLabel":"Religious"},{"outcome":"Amusement and recreation","sourceLabel":"Amusement and Recreation"},{"outcome":"Transportation","sourceLabel":"Transportation"},{"outcome":"Communication","sourceLabel":"Communication"},{"outcome":"Power","sourceLabel":"Power (inc. Gas and Oil)"},{"outcome":"Manufacturing","sourceLabel":"Manufacturing"}],"release_policy":"first_official_release_containing_june_2026_preliminary","evidence_policy":{"required":["retrieved_at","source_url","sha256","immutable_archive_uri"],"note":"The Census source is public but requires a venue-approved oracle or attestation adapter for on-chain settlement."},"execution_policy":{"status":"proposal_only","liveMarketIds":[],"orderSubmissionEnabled":false,"capitalAllocationEnabled":false,"runtimeOverridesAllowed":false,"scoreAdmissionRegistry":"repository_owned_empty"}},{"id":"data-center-record-2026-06","slug":"data-center-construction-record-june-2026","question":"Will U.S. data-center construction spending hit a new record in June 2026?","role":"companion","contractType":"binary","resolutionMethod":"strict_new_record","status":"proposed","summary":"A record-watch contract anchored to the official monthly Data center series rather than a company announcement or private estimate.","whyItTrades":"Record highs are legible, newsworthy, and easy to verify while still exposing a direct view on physical AI infrastructure buildout.","resolutionObservation":"Whether the June 2026 Data center value is strictly above every earlier monthly value available in the same first-release workbook.","formula":"June 2026 Data center SAAR > max(all earlier Data center SAAR observations)","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"tiePolicy":"Matching the prior record resolves No; the June value must be strictly higher.","currentRead":"May 2026 preliminary set the current series high at $59.307B SAAR, so June must print above $59.307B.","currentStats":[{"label":"Current record","value":"$59.307B","detail":"May 2026 preliminary"},{"label":"June hurdle","value":">$59.307B","detail":"Strict comparison"},{"label":"Source precision","value":"$1M","detail":"Published in millions SAAR"}],"resolutionSteps":["Retrieve the first official Census private-SA workbook that contains a June 2026 preliminary observation.","Record the retrieval timestamp, workbook SHA-256, original Census URL, and an immutable Homecastr archive URI.","Read the published integer values in millions of dollars SAAR; do not substitute a forecast or later revision.","Find the maximum Data center observation dated before June 2026 in that same workbook snapshot.","Resolve Yes only if the June 2026 value is strictly greater than that maximum; otherwise resolve No."],"page_path":"/prediction-markets/data-center-construction-record-june-2026","resolution_source":{"publisher":"U.S. Census Bureau","dataset":"Value of Construction Put in Place","table":"Private construction, seasonally adjusted annual rate","landingPageUrl":"https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/historical_data.html","workbookUrl":"https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/xlsx/privsatime.xlsx","unit":"Millions of U.S. dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)"},"reference_snapshot":{"capturedAt":"2026-07-18T00:00:00-04:00","currentPeriod":"May 2026 preliminary","comparisonPeriod":"April 2026 revised","dataCenterCurrent":59307,"dataCenterPrevious":58977,"dataCenterPriorRecord":59307,"threshold":60000},"release_policy":"first_official_release_containing_june_2026_preliminary","evidence_policy":{"required":["retrieved_at","source_url","sha256","immutable_archive_uri"],"note":"The Census source is public but requires a venue-approved oracle or attestation adapter for on-chain settlement."},"execution_policy":{"status":"proposal_only","liveMarketIds":[],"orderSubmissionEnabled":false,"capitalAllocationEnabled":false,"runtimeOverridesAllowed":false,"scoreAdmissionRegistry":"repository_owned_empty"}},{"id":"data-center-60b-2026-06","slug":"data-center-construction-above-60b-june-2026","question":"Will U.S. data-center construction spending be above $60B in June 2026?","role":"companion","contractType":"binary","resolutionMethod":"strict_threshold","status":"proposed","summary":"A round-number threshold contract on the official Data center construction series, published in millions of dollars SAAR.","whyItTrades":"The $60B line is memorable and close enough to the latest print to produce a balanced, easy-to-explain market.","resolutionObservation":"Whether the June 2026 Data center value is strictly greater than 60,000 million dollars SAAR.","formula":"June 2026 Data center SAAR > 60,000 (millions of dollars)","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"tiePolicy":"A published value of exactly 60,000 resolves No because the question says above $60B.","currentRead":"May 2026 preliminary was $59.307B SAAR, leaving a $693M gap, or about 1.17%, to finish above $60B.","currentStats":[{"label":"Latest value","value":"$59.307B","detail":"May 2026 preliminary"},{"label":"Threshold","value":">$60.000B","detail":"Strict comparison"},{"label":"Distance","value":"+$693M","detail":"+1.17% from May"}],"resolutionSteps":["Retrieve the first official Census private-SA workbook that contains a June 2026 preliminary observation.","Record the retrieval timestamp, workbook SHA-256, original Census URL, and an immutable Homecastr archive URI.","Read the published integer values in millions of dollars SAAR; do not substitute a forecast or later revision.","Read the June 2026 Data center value from the archived first-release workbook.","Resolve Yes only when the published value is greater than 60,000; resolve No at or below 60,000."],"page_path":"/prediction-markets/data-center-construction-above-60b-june-2026","resolution_source":{"publisher":"U.S. Census Bureau","dataset":"Value of Construction Put in Place","table":"Private construction, seasonally adjusted annual rate","landingPageUrl":"https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/historical_data.html","workbookUrl":"https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/xlsx/privsatime.xlsx","unit":"Millions of U.S. dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)"},"reference_snapshot":{"capturedAt":"2026-07-18T00:00:00-04:00","currentPeriod":"May 2026 preliminary","comparisonPeriod":"April 2026 revised","dataCenterCurrent":59307,"dataCenterPrevious":58977,"dataCenterPriorRecord":59307,"threshold":60000},"release_policy":"first_official_release_containing_june_2026_preliminary","evidence_policy":{"required":["retrieved_at","source_url","sha256","immutable_archive_uri"],"note":"The Census source is public but requires a venue-approved oracle or attestation adapter for on-chain settlement."},"execution_policy":{"status":"proposal_only","liveMarketIds":[],"orderSubmissionEnabled":false,"capitalAllocationEnabled":false,"runtimeOverridesAllowed":false,"scoreAdmissionRegistry":"repository_owned_empty"}}]}