County 02591, AK · Census Tract 02591002227 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.10M
Downside (P10)
$510K
-53% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$959K
-13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.52M
+38% by 2030
Base case: -13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -53% to +38%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 02591 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.1M | $1.1M | $999K | $934K | $959K |
| YoY Change | +0.5% | -9.3% | -6.5% | +2.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $767K | $624K | $530K | $510K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.5M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$877K to $1.33M
41.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$510K to $1.52M
104.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 002845 | $1.16M | $966K | -16.4% |
| Tract 002683 | $1.23M | $876K | -28.7% |
| Tract 001723 | $962K | $813K | -15.5% |
| Tract 002780 | $958K | $815K | -14.8% |
| Tract 002764 | $955K | $841K | -12.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001888 | $722K | $877K | +21.4% |
| Tract 002706 | $418K | $474K | +13.6% |
| Tract 001260 | $436K | $477K | +9.4% |
| Tract 002162 | $871K | $881K | +1.2% |
| Tract 001684 | $662K | $653K | -1.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 002706 | $418K | $474K | $461K |
| Tract 001260 | $436K | $477K | $591K |
| Tract 001684 | $662K | $653K | $601K |
| Tract 000106 | $700K | $638K | $687K |
| Tract 001367 | $730K | $665K | $733K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources