County 05760, AR · Census Tract 05760000866 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.47M
Downside (P10)
$637K
-57% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.05M
-29% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.53M
+4% by 2030
Base case: -29% by 2030, with a forecast range from -57% to +4%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 05760 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.5M | $1.4M | $1.2M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
| YoY Change | -3.0% | -17.2% | -9.4% | -1.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $887K | $753K | $654K | $637K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.7M | $1.6M | $1.5M | $1.5M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.03M to $1.73M
48.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$637K to $1.53M
84.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000484 | $1.47M | $1.10M | -25.4% |
| Tract 000329 | $1.47M | $1.12M | -24.0% |
| Tract 000662 | $1.48M | $1.09M | -26.2% |
| Tract 000565 | $1.49M | $1.15M | -23.2% |
| Tract 000604 | $1.44M | $1.08M | -25.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000044 | $1.00M | $811K | -19.1% |
| Tract 000565 | $1.49M | $1.15M | -23.2% |
| Tract 000329 | $1.47M | $1.12M | -24.0% |
| Tract 000604 | $1.44M | $1.08M | -25.3% |
| Tract 000484 | $1.47M | $1.10M | -25.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000882 | $1.56M | $1.15M | $849K |
| Tract 000183 | $1.42M | $1.03M | $852K |
| Tract 000303 | $1.27M | $927K | $922K |
| Tract 000565 | $1.49M | $1.15M | $923K |
| Tract 000329 | $1.47M | $1.12M | $946K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources