Phoenix, AZ · ZIP 85286 · Census Tract 04013812000 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$608K
Downside (P10)
$537K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$665K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$940K
+55% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +55%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar Phoenix markets.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $280K | $270K | $265K | $509K | $565K | $583K | $608K | $635K | $649K | $665K |
| YoY Change | -3.7% | -1.6% | +92.0% | +11.0% | +3.1% | +4.4% | +4.4% | +2.1% | +2.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $529K | $532K | $537K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $788K | $900K | $940K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The range stays consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$529K to $788K
40.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$537K to $940K
60.6% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources