County 11733, DC · Census Tract 11733960008 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.02M
Downside (P10)
$430K
-58% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$861K
-15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.58M
+55% by 2030
Base case: -15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -58% to +55%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 11733 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.0M | $1.0M | $884K | $853K | $861K |
| YoY Change | -1.6% | -11.8% | -3.5% | +1.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $648K | $488K | $431K | $430K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.6M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$778K to $1.34M
55.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$430K to $1.58M
133.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 680003 | $1.20M | $887K | -25.9% |
| Tract 880007 | $1.21M | $914K | -24.6% |
| Tract 400005 | $1.21M | $1.02M | -16.4% |
| Tract 840005 | $1.23M | $991K | -19.7% |
| Tract 440007 | $1.40M | $1.09M | -22.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 400005 | $1.21M | $1.02M | -16.4% |
| Tract 840005 | $1.23M | $991K | -19.7% |
| Tract 440007 | $1.40M | $1.09M | -22.1% |
| Tract 880007 | $1.21M | $914K | -24.6% |
| Tract 680003 | $1.20M | $887K | -25.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 080001 | $1.42M | $982K | $899K |
| Tract 680003 | $1.20M | $887K | $948K |
| Tract 880007 | $1.21M | $914K | $989K |
| Tract 440007 | $1.40M | $1.09M | $1.09M |
| Tract 840005 | $1.23M | $991K | $1.10M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources