Honolulu, HI · ZIP 96816 · Census Tract 15003002102 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$483K
Downside (P10)
$397K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$500K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$652K
+35% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +35%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar Honolulu markets.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $421K | $434K | $428K | $563K | $476K | $482K | $483K | $484K | $495K | $500K |
| YoY Change | +3.1% | -1.4% | +31.6% | -15.5% | +1.4% | +0.2% | +0.1% | +2.2% | +1.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $417K | $397K | $396K | $397K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $539K | $551K | $571K | $652K |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$443K to $505K
12.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$397K to $652K
51.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Urban Honolulu | $484K | $528K | +9.2% |
| Waipahu | $482K | $525K | +9.0% |
| Urban Honolulu | $485K | $528K | +8.9% |
| Urban Honolulu | $482K | $517K | +7.4% |
| Urban Honolulu | $488K | $506K | +3.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waipahu | $379K | $464K | +22.4% |
| Urban Honolulu | $448K | $549K | +22.4% |
| Koolauloa | $961K | $1.17M | +21.6% |
| Koolaupoko | $776K | $939K | +21.1% |
| Urban Honolulu | $496K | $598K | +20.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nanakuli | $245K | $269K | $160K |
| Urban Honolulu | $425K | $440K | $176K |
| Waianae | $314K | $337K | $190K |
| Urban Honolulu | $337K | $378K | $193K |
| Urban Honolulu | $400K | $437K | $204K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources