County 21800, KY · Census Tract 21800011524 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$656K
Downside (P10)
$503K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$859K
+31% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.34M
+104% by 2030
Base case: +31% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +104%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 21800 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $656K | $732K | $769K | $810K | $859K |
| YoY Change | +11.7% | +5.0% | +5.3% | +6.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $587K | $505K | $506K | $503K | |
| Upside (P90) | $929K | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.3M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$584K to $776K
29.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$503K to $1.34M
96.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 012442 | $660K | $811K | +22.8% |
| Tract 012921 | $662K | $868K | +31.0% |
| Tract 011388 | $662K | $808K | +22.0% |
| Tract 012523 | $665K | $928K | +39.5% |
| Tract 010965 | $666K | $823K | +23.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 002009 | $225K | $358K | +59.4% |
| Tract 002368 | $216K | $343K | +58.9% |
| Tract 003066 | $203K | $323K | +58.8% |
| Tract 003040 | $215K | $338K | +57.2% |
| Tract 003163 | $212K | $327K | +53.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000360 | $202K | $279K | $227K |
| Tract 000221 | $207K | $282K | $239K |
| Tract 001149 | $200K | $306K | $241K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources