County 24140, MD · Census Tract 24140000522 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$4.65M
Downside (P10)
$1.85M
-60% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$2.83M
-39% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$3.44M
-26% by 2030
Base case: -39% by 2030, with a forecast range from -60% to -26%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 24140 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $4.7M | $4.4M | $3.7M | $3.0M | $2.8M |
| YoY Change | -5.2% | -17.0% | -17.4% | -6.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $3.3M | $2.6M | $2.1M | $1.9M | |
| Upside (P90) | $5.0M | $4.3M | $3.6M | $3.4M |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$3.69M to $4.99M
27.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.85M to $3.44M
56.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001327 | $4.65M | $2.61M | -43.9% |
| Tract 000726 | $4.66M | $2.77M | -40.5% |
| Tract 000687 | $4.64M | $2.85M | -38.6% |
| Tract 000700 | $4.67M | $2.89M | -38.0% |
| Tract 001246 | $4.62M | $2.69M | -41.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000360 | $4.47M | $3.01M | -32.6% |
| Tract 001369 | $4.79M | $3.09M | -35.4% |
| Tract 001068 | $4.20M | $2.69M | -36.0% |
| Tract 000483 | $4.60M | $2.86M | -37.8% |
| Tract 000700 | $4.67M | $2.89M | -38.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001068 | $4.20M | $2.69M | $1.52M |
| Tract 000360 | $4.47M | $3.01M | $1.61M |
| Tract 001327 | $4.65M | $2.61M | $1.62M |
| Tract 000687 | $4.64M | $2.85M | $1.63M |
| Tract 001246 | $4.62M | $2.69M | $1.69M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources