What is the home price forecast for Tract 240001?

Homecastr forecasts Tract 240001 median home values at $2,262,010 currently, with a 5-year expected change of -31.7%.

How confident is the Tract 240001 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $1,064,005 (downside) to $2,049,380 (upside), with a spread of 64% of median.

Tract 240001 Home Price Forecast

County 27583, MN · Census Tract 27583240001 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$2.26M

Downside (P10)

$1.06M

-53% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$1.54M

-32% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$2.05M

-9% by 2030

Base case: -32% by 2030, with a forecast range from -53% to -9%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 27583 markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Median Value	$2.3M	$2.3M	$1.9M	$1.6M	$1.5M
YoY Change		+0.2%	-14.8%	-15.1%	-5.8%
Downside (P10)		$1.6M	$1.3M	$1.1M	$1.1M
Upside (P90)		$2.7M	$2.4M	$2.1M	$2.0M

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.

1-Year Spread

$1.74M to $2.63M

39.5% of median

5-Year Spread

$1.06M to $2.05M

63.8% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: significant decline expected5yr expected: -31.7% · Spread: 64%

·The downside reflects broader macro sensitivity and local demand softening.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 440005	$2.19M	$1.57M	-28.3%
Tract 520006	$3.78M	$2.51M	-33.5%
Tract 600007	$4.97M	$3.57M	-28.2%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 600007	$4.97M	$3.57M	-28.2%
Tract 440005	$2.19M	$1.57M	-28.3%
Tract 520006	$3.78M	$2.51M	-33.5%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
Tract 440005	$2.19M	$1.57M	$1.07M
Tract 600007	$4.97M	$3.57M	$1.53M
Tract 520006	$3.78M	$2.51M	$1.78M

Location

Tract 240001 on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).