What is the home price forecast for Tract 500286?

Homecastr forecasts Tract 500286 median home values at $279,072 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 42.9%.

How confident is the Tract 500286 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $290,971 (downside) to $582,707 (upside), with a spread of 73% of median.

Tract 500286 Home Price Forecast

County 28267, MS · Census Tract 28267500286 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$279K

Downside (P10)

$291K

+4% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$399K

+43% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$583K

+109% by 2030

Base case: +43% by 2030, with a forecast range from +4% to +109%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 28267 markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Median Value	$279K	$313K	$334K	$359K	$399K
YoY Change		+12.2%	+6.6%	+7.5%	+11.1%
Downside (P10)		$250K	$250K	$264K	$291K
Upside (P90)		$406K	$463K	$515K	$583K

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.

1-Year Spread

$245K to $330K

30.4% of median

5-Year Spread

$291K to $583K

73.2% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +42.9% · Spread: 73%

·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 500341	$278K	$398K	+43.1%
Tract 500082	$274K	$397K	+44.7%
Tract 500383	$255K	$359K	+40.8%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 500082	$274K	$397K	+44.7%
Tract 500341	$278K	$398K	+43.1%
Tract 500383	$255K	$359K	+40.8%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
Tract 500082	$274K	$397K	$272K
Tract 500341	$278K	$398K	$297K
Tract 500383	$255K	$359K	$317K

Location

Tract 500286 on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).