What is the home price forecast for Tract 200008?

Homecastr forecasts Tract 200008 median home values at $473,085 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 22.9%.

How confident is the Tract 200008 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $305,019 (downside) to $1,065,670 (upside), with a spread of 131% of median.

Tract 200008 Home Price Forecast

County 38052, ND · Census Tract 38052200008 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$473K

Downside (P10)

$305K

-36% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$581K

+23% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$1.07M

+125% by 2030

Base case: +23% by 2030, with a forecast range from -36% to +125%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 38052 markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Median Value	$473K	$531K	$520K	$544K	$581K
YoY Change		+12.3%	-2.2%	+4.6%	+6.9%
Downside (P10)		$376K	$332K	$308K	$305K
Upside (P90)		$835K	$922K	$969K	$1.1M

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.

1-Year Spread

$387K to $623K

49.8% of median

5-Year Spread

$305K to $1.07M

130.8% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +22.9% · Spread: 131%

·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.
·The wider-than-average range suggests more uncertainty about the trajectory — consider both upside and downside scenarios.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 160009	$409K	$474K	+16.0%
Tract 840002	$382K	$473K	+23.8%
Tract 400002	$127K	$192K	+51.6%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 400002	$127K	$192K	+51.6%
Tract 840002	$382K	$473K	+23.8%
Tract 160009	$409K	$474K	+16.0%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
Tract 400002	$127K	$192K	$175K
Tract 160009	$409K	$474K	$602K
Tract 840002	$382K	$473K	$629K

Location

Tract 200008 on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).