County 32420, NV · Census Tract 32420004609 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$401K
Downside (P10)
$298K
-26% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$503K
+26% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$794K
+98% by 2030
Base case: +26% by 2030, with a forecast range from -26% to +98%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 32420 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $401K | $449K | $441K | $462K | $503K |
| YoY Change | +12.0% | -1.7% | +4.8% | +8.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $332K | $316K | $304K | $298K | |
| Upside (P90) | $593K | $676K | $725K | $794K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$328K to $507K
44.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$298K to $794K
98.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000881 | $401K | $517K | +29.0% |
| Tract 009400 | $401K | $462K | +15.1% |
| Tract 003040 | $401K | $478K | +19.4% |
| Tract 000580 | $400K | $507K | +26.5% |
| Tract 004366 | $402K | $498K | +24.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 003121 | $383K | $535K | +39.9% |
| Tract 000409 | $395K | $547K | +38.6% |
| Tract 005682 | $388K | $530K | +36.3% |
| Tract 008126 | $377K | $513K | +36.1% |
| Tract 003325 | $387K | $515K | +33.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 009743 | $381K | $418K | $381K |
| Tract 007525 | $381K | $464K | $383K |
| Tract 009400 | $401K | $462K | $403K |
| Tract 006924 | $391K | $470K | $408K |
| Tract 001466 | $388K | $468K | $414K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources