Douglas, NV · ZIP 89449 · Census Tract 32005001800 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.13M
Downside (P10)
$956K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.21M
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.65M
+45% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +45%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar Douglas markets.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $406K | $437K | $432K | $429K | $521K | $631K | $665K | $723K | $768K | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M |
| YoY Change | +7.7% | -1.1% | -0.6% | +21.3% | +21.1% | +5.5% | +8.6% | +6.3% | +40.3% | +2.1% | +3.0% | +4.2% | +1.2% | +1.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M | $956K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.2M | $1.4M | $1.5M | $1.6M |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.06M to $1.17M
10.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$956K to $1.65M
57.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa-Jacks Valley | $1.20M | $1.33M | +10.6% |
| Genoa-Jacks Valley | $1.05M | $1.09M | +3.9% |
| Round Hill Village | $1.30M | $1.42M | +9.6% |
| Gardnerville-Minden | $767K | $791K | +3.2% |
| Pine Nut | $750K | $851K | +13.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pine Nut | $750K | $851K | +13.5% |
| Topaz Lake | $308K | $343K | +11.5% |
| Genoa-Jacks Valley | $1.20M | $1.33M | +10.6% |
| Gardnerville-Minden area | $440K | $486K | +10.5% |
| Gardnerville Ranchos | $682K | $752K | +10.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gardnerville Ranchos | $448K | $444K | $213K |
| Topaz Lake | $308K | $343K | $230K |
| Gardnerville | $498K | $522K | $238K |
| Indian Hills | $459K | $498K | $279K |
| Gardnerville Ranchos | $504K | $532K | $303K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources