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Bronx, NY · ZIP 10473 · Census Tract 36005004200 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$373K
Downside (P10)
$349K
-6% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$396K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$534K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -6% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2017 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $149K | $144K | $341K | $345K | $358K | $363K | $373K | $386K | $403K | $396K | $384K |
| YoY Change | -3.6% | +137.1% | +1.3% | +3.7% | +1.2% | +2.8% | +3.6% | +4.5% | -1.9% | -3.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $330K | $339K | $349K | $342K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $448K | $486K | $534K | $433K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$330K to $448K
30.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$342K to $433K
23.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castle Hill | $363K | $396K | +9.0% | |
| Kingsbridge (Tract 027700) | $371K | $404K | +8.8% | |
| Kingsbridge (Tract 029302) | $374K | $429K | +14.7% | |
| Kingsbridge (Tract 028900) | $375K | $424K | +13.1% | |
| Kingsbridge (Tract 028300) | $360K | $374K | +4.0% | |
| Riverdale | $395K | $440K | +11.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castle Hill | $363K | $396K | +9.0% | |
| West Farms | $786K | $961K | +22.4% | |
| Hunts Point | $637K | $762K | +19.6% | |
| Castle Hill | $564K | $667K | +18.2% | |
| Morris Park | $902K | $1.06M | +17.7% | |
| Norwood | $502K | $590K | +17.6% |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.