County 36716, NY · Census Tract 36716961009 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$980K
Downside (P10)
$688K
-30% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$947K
-3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.50M
+53% by 2030
Base case: -3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -30% to +53%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 36716 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $980K | $999K | $924K | $914K | $947K |
| YoY Change | +1.9% | -7.5% | -1.1% | +3.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $843K | $719K | $672K | $688K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.5M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$867K to $1.19M
32.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$688K to $1.50M
85.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 040001 | $1.00M | $772K | -23.1% |
| Tract 400007 | $1.01M | $838K | -17.0% |
| Tract 080003 | $1.15M | $1.18M | +2.2% |
| Tract 840007 | $698K | $642K | -7.9% |
| Tract 240005 | $689K | $732K | +6.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 720004 | $687K | $853K | +24.2% |
| Tract 680005 | $494K | $566K | +14.6% |
| Tract 240005 | $689K | $732K | +6.2% |
| Tract 080003 | $1.15M | $1.18M | +2.2% |
| Tract 480001 | $512K | $511K | -0.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 680005 | $494K | $566K | $726K |
| Tract 840007 | $698K | $642K | $771K |
| Tract 480001 | $512K | $511K | $798K |
| Tract 240005 | $689K | $732K | $801K |
| Tract 560002 | $586K | $523K | $820K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources