County 36761, NY · Census Tract 36761740000 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$615K
Downside (P10)
$356K
-42% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$642K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.17M
+91% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -42% to +91%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 36761 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $615K | $644K | $616K | $605K | $642K |
| YoY Change | +4.7% | -4.4% | -1.7% | +6.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $445K | $363K | $333K | $356K | |
| Upside (P90) | $937K | $984K | $1.1M | $1.2M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$490K to $779K
47.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$356K to $1.17M
127.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 080003 | $675K | $624K | -7.6% |
| Tract 200003 | $549K | $562K | +2.5% |
| Tract 320006 | $712K | $574K | -19.4% |
| Tract 880009 | $750K | $723K | -3.5% |
| Tract 920008 | $460K | $392K | -14.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 760103 | $322K | $496K | +54.1% |
| Tract 760006 | $317K | $485K | +52.9% |
| Tract 600001 | $1.28M | $1.80M | +40.5% |
| Tract 440106 | $1.97M | $2.45M | +24.2% |
| Tract 280007 | $417K | $445K | +6.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 760006 | $317K | $485K | $326K |
| Tract 760103 | $322K | $496K | $375K |
| Tract 200003 | $549K | $562K | $628K |
| Tract 280007 | $417K | $445K | $668K |
| Tract 920008 | $460K | $392K | $680K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources