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Manhattan, NY · ZIP 10023 · Census Tract 36061015102 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$2.04M
Downside (P10)
$1.74M
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$2.43M
+19% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$3.37M
+66% by 2030
Base case: +19% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +66%. The model forecasts this with 63% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.7M | $1.9M | $1.9M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.2M | $2.3M | $2.4M |
| YoY Change | +9.3% | -0.1% | +5.3% | +0.0% | +1.9% | +6.3% | +5.2% | +6.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.6M | $1.7M | $1.7M | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $3.0M | $3.2M | $3.4M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$1.65M to $2.96M
60.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.74M to $3.37M
66.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upper West Side · 10023 · (Tract 151.2) | $2.01M | $2.43M | +21.0% | |
| Upper West Side (Tract 014900) | $2.04M | $2.21M | +8.7% | |
| Upper West Side (Tract 014700) | $2.04M | $2.39M | +17.4% | |
| Upper West Side (Tract 016300) | $2.03M | $2.02M | -0.7% | |
| Tribeca (Tract 004700) | $2.04M | $2.30M | +12.9% | |
| Tribeca (Tract 003900) | $2.03M | $2.14M | +5.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upper West Side · 10023 · (Tract 151.2) | $2.01M | $2.43M | +21.0% | |
| Hamilton Heights | $1.03M | $1.27M | +24.0% | |
| Midtown East | $728K | $896K | +23.1% | |
| Gramercy | $1.11M | $1.33M | +20.4% | |
| West Village | $1.43M | $1.71M | +19.8% | |
| Morningside Heights | $1.38M | $1.65M | +19.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upper West Side · 10023 · (Tract 151.2) | $2.01M | $2.43M | $1.63M | |
| Upper West Side | $101K | $110K | $47K | |
| Chelsea | $140K | $155K | $68K | |
| Fort George | $113K | $125K | $72K | |
| Times Square | $462K | $513K | $218K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.