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Staten Island, NY · ZIP 10314 · Census Tract 36085018901 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$705K
Downside (P10)
$621K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$757K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.05M
+49% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +49%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $451K | $457K | $460K | $495K | $566K | $592K | $592K | $654K | $651K | $686K | $705K | $721K | $735K | $757K |
| YoY Change | +1.1% | +0.7% | +7.6% | +14.3% | +4.6% | -0.0% | +10.5% | -0.5% | +5.4% | +2.8% | +2.2% | +2.0% | +3.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $634K | $619K | $621K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $859K | $935K | $1.0M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$634K to $859K
31.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$621K to $1.05M
56.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York (Tract 007002) | $686K | $828K | +20.6% | |
| New York (Tract 001700) | $725K | $794K | +9.5% | |
| New York (Tract 003300) | $661K | $713K | +7.9% | |
| New York (Tract 002002) | $708K | $763K | +7.8% | |
| New York (Tract 007500) | $740K | $737K | -0.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York (Tract 007002) | $686K | $828K | +20.6% | |
| New York (Tract 005000) | $654K | $745K | +13.9% | |
| New York (Tract 004001) | $1.06M | $1.20M | +13.3% | |
| New York (Tract 004002) | $559K | $627K | +12.3% | |
| New York (Tract 000300) | $632K | $705K | +11.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York (Tract 007700) | $488K | $536K | $305K | |
| New York (Tract 000600) | $507K | $551K | $299K | |
| New York (Tract 002100) | $549K | $578K | $282K | |
| New York (Tract 000700) | $472K | $485K | $268K | |
| New York (Tract 004002) | $559K | $627K | $239K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.