County 46622, SD · Census Tract 46622200501 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.93M
Downside (P10)
$1.39M
-28% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.67M
-14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.03M
+5% by 2030
Base case: -14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -28% to +5%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 46622 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.9M | $2.1M | $1.8M | $1.7M | $1.7M |
| YoY Change | +6.0% | -10.3% | -9.2% | +0.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.8M | $1.6M | $1.4M | $1.4M | |
| Upside (P90) | $2.3M | $2.2M | $2.0M | $2.0M |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.76M to $2.19M
22.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.39M to $2.03M
38.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 601100 | $1.93M | $1.91M | -0.9% |
| Tract 601045 | $1.92M | $1.82M | -5.3% |
| Tract 001263 | $1.92M | $1.36M | -28.9% |
| Tract 601168 | $1.92M | $1.86M | -3.1% |
| Tract 001386 | $1.95M | $1.52M | -22.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 601883 | $125K | $237K | +88.8% |
| Tract 601867 | $124K | $229K | +83.8% |
| Tract 201542 | $115K | $171K | +49.5% |
| Tract 201568 | $115K | $150K | +30.6% |
| Tract 600224 | $1.37M | $1.47M | +7.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 201568 | $115K | $150K | $164K |
| Tract 201542 | $115K | $171K | $166K |
| Tract 601883 | $125K | $237K | $223K |
| Tract 601867 | $124K | $229K | $239K |
| Tract 200860 | $2.63M | $2.23M | $502K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources