County 46622, SD · Census Tract 46622000206 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.65M
Downside (P10)
$895K
-46% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.36M
-17% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.84M
+11% by 2030
Base case: -17% by 2030, with a forecast range from -46% to +11%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 46622 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.7M | $1.6M | $1.5M | $1.4M | $1.4M |
| YoY Change | -1.3% | -9.7% | -7.4% | +0.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.1M | $960K | $862K | $895K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.9M | $1.9M | $1.8M | $1.8M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.32M to $1.89M
35.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$895K to $1.84M
69.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 600266 | $1.66M | $1.63M | -1.5% |
| Tract 600402 | $1.64M | $1.63M | -0.6% |
| Tract 001182 | $1.64M | $1.25M | -23.6% |
| Tract 000963 | $1.68M | $1.29M | -22.9% |
| Tract 100122 | $1.70M | $1.57M | -7.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 601883 | $125K | $237K | +88.8% |
| Tract 601867 | $124K | $229K | +83.8% |
| Tract 201542 | $115K | $171K | +49.5% |
| Tract 201568 | $115K | $150K | +30.6% |
| Tract 600224 | $1.37M | $1.47M | +7.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 201568 | $115K | $150K | $164K |
| Tract 201542 | $115K | $171K | $166K |
| Tract 601883 | $125K | $237K | $223K |
| Tract 601867 | $124K | $229K | $239K |
| Tract 200860 | $2.63M | $2.23M | $502K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources