County 51040, VA · Census Tract 51040780106 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$79K
Downside (P10)
$62K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$109K
+37% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$169K
+113% by 2030
Base case: +37% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +113%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 51040 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $79K | $92K | $94K | $98K | $109K |
| YoY Change | +16.4% | +2.0% | +3.8% | +11.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $72K | $64K | $60K | $62K | |
| Upside (P90) | $129K | $140K | $147K | $169K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$67K to $99K
39.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$62K to $169K
98.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 080000 | $66K | $100K | +51.3% |
| Tract 480008 | $124K | $182K | +46.6% |
| Tract 720001 | $186K | $266K | +42.7% |
| Tract 760003 | $192K | $266K | +39.0% |
| Tract 120009 | $208K | $294K | +41.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 800002 | $291K | $462K | +59.1% |
| Tract 080000 | $66K | $100K | +51.3% |
| Tract 480008 | $124K | $182K | +46.6% |
| Tract 720001 | $186K | $266K | +42.7% |
| Tract 120009 | $208K | $294K | +41.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 080000 | $66K | $100K | $140K |
| Tract 480008 | $124K | $182K | $191K |
| Tract 720001 | $186K | $266K | $279K |
| Tract 760003 | $192K | $266K | $293K |
| Tract 120009 | $208K | $294K | $374K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources