County 51544, VA · Census Tract 51544806405 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$973K
Downside (P10)
$438K
-55% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$825K
-15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.46M
+50% by 2030
Base case: -15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -55% to +50%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 51544 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $973K | $987K | $893K | $783K | $825K |
| YoY Change | +1.5% | -9.6% | -12.3% | +5.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $643K | $484K | $429K | $438K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.5M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$727K to $1.29M
58.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$438K to $1.46M
124.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 807404 | $990K | $902K | -8.9% |
| Tract 804203 | $991K | $887K | -10.5% |
| Tract 809907 | $999K | $867K | -13.2% |
| Tract 804559 | $947K | $870K | -8.1% |
| Tract 806557 | $1.01M | $868K | -13.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 807006 | $822K | $876K | +6.5% |
| Tract 810608 | $777K | $821K | +5.7% |
| Tract 806803 | $903K | $883K | -2.2% |
| Tract 810556 | $864K | $838K | -3.0% |
| Tract 810501 | $868K | $835K | -3.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 804407 | $921K | $797K | $874K |
| Tract 808209 | $1.10M | $943K | $906K |
| Tract 807459 | $817K | $740K | $911K |
| Tract 805956 | $870K | $764K | $923K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources