County 51565, VA · Census Tract 51565001001 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$474K
Downside (P10)
$354K
-25% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$556K
+17% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$913K
+93% by 2030
Base case: +17% by 2030, with a forecast range from -25% to +93%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 51565 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $474K | $513K | $496K | $512K | $556K |
| YoY Change | +8.3% | -3.2% | +3.1% | +8.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $380K | $315K | $312K | $354K | |
| Upside (P90) | $714K | $736K | $813K | $913K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$399K to $620K
46.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$354K to $913K
100.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000659 | $475K | $574K | +20.8% |
| Tract 001506 | $478K | $528K | +10.4% |
| Tract 001551 | $479K | $593K | +23.7% |
| Tract 001564 | $482K | $625K | +29.6% |
| Tract 000701 | $462K | $557K | +20.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000455 | $414K | $553K | +33.8% |
| Tract 001250 | $432K | $573K | +32.5% |
| Tract 000727 | $550K | $725K | +31.9% |
| Tract 001807 | $455K | $594K | +30.5% |
| Tract 001564 | $482K | $625K | +29.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000251 | $417K | $523K | $504K |
| Tract 000374 | $449K | $564K | $507K |
| Tract 001111 | $428K | $553K | $529K |
| Tract 001250 | $432K | $573K | $556K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources