County 51665, VA · Census Tract 51665001503 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$198K
Downside (P10)
$187K
-5% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$299K
+51% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$466K
+136% by 2030
Base case: +51% by 2030, with a forecast range from -5% to +136%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 51665 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $198K | $233K | $249K | $268K | $299K |
| YoY Change | +18.2% | +6.5% | +7.9% | +11.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $186K | $177K | $175K | $187K | |
| Upside (P90) | $317K | $346K | $384K | $466K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$167K to $251K
42.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$187K to $466K
93.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001927 | $206K | $310K | +50.7% |
| Tract 001781 | $211K | $328K | +55.5% |
| Tract 002188 | $217K | $303K | +39.5% |
| Tract 000481 | $169K | $256K | +51.0% |
| Tract 001066 | $168K | $248K | +47.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000669 | $110K | $177K | +61.0% |
| Tract 002065 | $114K | $183K | +60.9% |
| Tract 000067 | $78K | $124K | +58.5% |
| Tract 001781 | $211K | $328K | +55.5% |
| Tract 001286 | $161K | $250K | +55.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000067 | $78K | $124K | $161K |
| Tract 001600 | $119K | $179K | $178K |
| Tract 000106 | $116K | $176K | $181K |
| Tract 000766 | $117K | $173K | $183K |
| Tract 000669 | $110K | $177K | $184K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources