County 51978, VA · Census Tract 51978012182 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$793K
Downside (P10)
$312K
-61% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$670K
-16% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.31M
+65% by 2030
Base case: -16% by 2030, with a forecast range from -61% to +65%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 51978 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $793K | $805K | $735K | $675K | $670K |
| YoY Change | +1.5% | -8.7% | -8.2% | -0.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $487K | $380K | $330K | $312K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.3M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$542K to $1.07M
66.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$312K to $1.31M
149.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 012522 | $796K | $643K | -19.2% |
| Tract 013165 | $790K | $640K | -19.1% |
| Tract 005924 | $786K | $750K | -4.6% |
| Tract 031105 | $785K | $726K | -7.5% |
| Tract 006622 | $802K | $678K | -15.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 010320 | $536K | $648K | +20.9% |
| Tract 010281 | $517K | $622K | +20.4% |
| Tract 032049 | $750K | $900K | +20.0% |
| Tract 010508 | $543K | $643K | +18.4% |
| Tract 031749 | $891K | $1.05M | +17.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 009302 | $560K | $597K | $583K |
| Tract 031969 | $901K | $955K | $622K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources