What is the home price forecast for Elk Plain?

Homecastr forecasts Elk Plain median home values at $509,399 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 11.6%.

How confident is the Elk Plain forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $435,199 (downside) to $700,204 (upside), with a spread of 47% of median.

Elk Plain Home Price Forecast

Pierce, WA · ZIP 98338 · Census Tract 53053073115 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$509K

Downside (P10)

$435K

-15% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$568K

+12% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$700K

+37% by 2030

Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +37%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar Pierce markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$207K	$214K	$223K	$237K	$246K	$280K	$306K	$414K	$471K	$495K	$509K	$509K	$524K	$546K	$568K
YoY Change		+3.7%	+4.0%	+6.1%	+4.1%	+13.7%	+9.1%	+35.4%	+13.7%	+5.2%	+2.8%	+0.1%	+2.8%	+4.4%	+4.0%
Downside (P10)												$464K	$449K	$437K	$435K
Upside (P90)												$594K	$619K	$686K	$700K

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.

1-Year Spread

$472K to $564K

18.0% of median

5-Year Spread

$435K to $700K

46.6% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +11.6% · Spread: 47%

·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Frederickson	$509K	$565K	+10.9%
Tacoma	$510K	$571K	+11.9%
Graham	$508K	$549K	+8.0%
South Hill	$511K	$550K	+7.7%
Gig Harbor Peninsula	$508K	$551K	+8.6%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tacoma	$698K	$846K	+21.2%
Tacoma	$712K	$859K	+20.7%
Parkland	$481K	$580K	+20.5%
Fircrest	$594K	$716K	+20.5%
Puyallup	$527K	$633K	+20.2%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
Parkland	$382K	$401K	$167K
Tacoma	$378K	$436K	$170K
Tacoma	$281K	$301K	$175K
Tacoma	$397K	$440K	$184K
Tacoma	$414K	$457K	$191K

Location

Elk Plain on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).