FAQ & Glossary
Definitions and answers to help you navigate our probabilistic forecasts.
Glossary of Terms
Uncertainty Band
The statistical range between our P10 (conservative) and P90 (optimistic) forecasts. A wide band indicates the model sees multiple possible outcomes, usually due to high neighborhood volatility or unique property features.
P50 (Median Forecast)
The middle-of-the-road expectation. Statistically, there is an equal chance the eventual value will land above or below this number.
Parcel vs. Neighborhood
A parcel is an individual lot/property. A neighborhood (often represented by a Census Tract or ZCTA) is an aggregation. Homecastr calculates at the parcel level and aggregates up.
H3 Hex
A spatial indexing system originally developed by Uber. We use H3 resolution 9 hexagons to visualize localized density and growth trends without exposing individualized data too early.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why not just give me one number?
Because the future is not a single number. If you are an investor buying a property, knowing that the "average" outcome is a $20k profit is less useful than knowing there is a 10% chance you lose $50k. Probability bands let you underwrite risk.
How often is the data updated?
We process new transaction data continuously, but our core structural models undergo a full recalibration every quarter. Look for the "Model Version" in the app for exact calibration dates.
What areas do you cover?
Our Schrödinger Bridge v12 model covers residential properties across the United States, including Texas, New York, Florida, and more. Browse the forecast directory to find your state, county, or neighborhood.
How can I access the raw data?
Raw data exports and API access are available for enterprise clients. Please reach out to our team at sales@homecastr.com.