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Anchorage, AK · ZIP 99517 · Census Tract 02020002100 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$320K
Downside (P10)
$282K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$349K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$424K
+33% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +33%. The model forecasts this with 78% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $236K | $233K | $236K | $228K | $227K | $231K | $240K | $278K | $283K | $309K | $320K | $338K | $349K | $349K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$84,463 | -$87,363 | -$84,563 | -$91,863 | -$93,163 | -$89,263 | -$79,663 | -$42,363 | -$36,763 | -$10,763 | +$17,560 | +$28,752 | +$29,367 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -26.4% | -27.3% | -26.4% | -28.7% | -29.1% | -27.9% | -24.9% | -13.2% | -11.5% | -3.4% | +5.5% | +9.0% | +9.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $288K | $289K | $282K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $366K | $392K | $424K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$288K to $366K
22.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$282K to $424K
40.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anchorage | $317K | $349K | +10.2% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 002000) | $327K | $360K | +10.2% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 002811) | $307K | $326K | +6.2% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 002400) | $321K | $339K | +5.4% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 001701) | $324K | $338K | +4.3% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000602) | $319K | $314K | -1.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anchorage | $317K | $349K | +10.2% | |
| Eagle River | $252K | $353K | +39.6% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000200) | $251K | $316K | +26.2% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 002714) | $442K | $536K | +21.2% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 002713) | $446K | $518K | +16.2% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 002304) | $383K | $444K | +15.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anchorage | $317K | $349K | $142K | |
| Anchorage (Tract 002811) | $307K | $326K | $157K | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000701) | $277K | $311K | $151K | |
| Anchorage (Tract 001802) | $185K | $212K | $109K | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000802) | $144K | $154K | $104K | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000901) | $105K | $115K | $47K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Anchorage, AK · ZIP 99517 · Census Tract 02020002100 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$320K
Downside (P10)
$282K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$349K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$424K
+33% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +33%. The model forecasts this with 78% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $236K | $233K | $236K | $228K | $227K | $231K | $240K | $278K | $283K | $309K | $320K | $338K | $349K | $349K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$84,463 | -$87,363 | -$84,563 | -$91,863 | -$93,163 | -$89,263 | -$79,663 | -$42,363 | -$36,763 | -$10,763 | +$17,560 | +$28,752 | +$29,367 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -26.4% | -27.3% | -26.4% | -28.7% | -29.1% | -27.9% | -24.9% | -13.2% | -11.5% | -3.4% | +5.5% | +9.0% | +9.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $288K | $289K | $282K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $366K | $392K | $424K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$288K to $366K
22.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$282K to $424K
40.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anchorage | $317K | $349K | +10.2% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 002000) | $327K | $360K | +10.2% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 002811) | $307K | $326K | +6.2% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 002400) | $321K | $339K | +5.4% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 001701) | $324K | $338K | +4.3% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000602) | $319K | $314K | -1.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anchorage | $317K | $349K | +10.2% | |
| Eagle River | $252K | $353K | +39.6% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000200) | $251K | $316K | +26.2% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 002714) | $442K | $536K | +21.2% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 002713) | $446K | $518K | +16.2% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 002304) | $383K | $444K | +15.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anchorage | $317K | $349K | $142K | |
| Anchorage (Tract 002811) | $307K | $326K | $157K | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000701) | $277K | $311K | $151K | |
| Anchorage (Tract 001802) | $185K | $212K | $109K | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000802) | $144K | $154K | $104K | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000901) | $105K | $115K | $47K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
