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Fairbanks North Star, AK · ZIP 99714 · Census Tract 02090001700 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$302K
Downside (P10)
$254K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$328K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$408K
+35% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +35%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $214K | $199K | $197K | $233K | $169K | $165K | $208K | $238K | $238K | $287K | $302K | $301K | $311K | $328K | $299K |
| YoY Change | -6.9% | -0.8% | +17.9% | -27.4% | -2.5% | +26.4% | +14.2% | +0.1% | +20.4% | +5.2% | -0.0% | +3.2% | +5.5% | -9.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $245K | $256K | $254K | $263K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $352K | $384K | $408K | $342K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$245K to $352K
35.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$263K to $342K
26.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairbanks North Star | $297K | $328K | +10.6% | |
| Badger | $316K | $356K | +12.8% | |
| Fairbanks (Tract 000400) | $293K | $323K | +10.2% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001402) | $287K | $309K | +7.5% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 000700) | $302K | $322K | +6.6% | |
| Fairbanks (Tract 000200) | $306K | $319K | +4.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairbanks North Star | $297K | $328K | +10.6% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001000) | $277K | $321K | +16.1% | |
| Fairbanks | $245K | $282K | +14.9% | |
| Badger | $316K | $356K | +12.8% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001200) | $325K | $364K | +12.0% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 000600) | $240K | $267K | +11.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairbanks North Star | $297K | $328K | $154K | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 000600) | $240K | $267K | $155K | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001901) | $281K | $302K | $150K | |
| Fairbanks (Tract 000400) | $293K | $323K | $147K | |
| Fairbanks (Tract 000300) | $183K | $197K | $118K | |
| Fairbanks (Tract 000100) | $184K | $190K | $96K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.