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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Fairbanks North Star, AK · ZIP 99701 · Census Tract 02090000300 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$185K
Downside (P10)
$133K
-28% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$197K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$252K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -28% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $158K | $162K | $141K | $151K | $172K | $143K | $142K | $215K | $166K | $176K | $185K | $192K | $189K | $197K |
| YoY Change | +2.7% | -13.4% | +7.4% | +14.0% | -17.0% | -0.6% | +51.6% | -22.8% | +5.9% | +5.3% | +3.4% | -1.5% | +4.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $153K | $147K | $133K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $217K | $228K | $252K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$153K to $217K
33.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$133K to $252K
60.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairbanks | $183K | $197K | +7.6% | |
| Fairbanks (Tract 000500) | $245K | $282K | +14.9% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 000600) | $240K | $267K | +11.1% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001600) | $267K | $281K | +5.5% | |
| Fairbanks (Tract 000100) | $184K | $190K | +2.9% | |
| College | $272K | $273K | +0.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairbanks | $183K | $197K | +7.6% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001000) | $277K | $321K | +16.1% | |
| Fairbanks | $245K | $282K | +14.9% | |
| Badger | $316K | $356K | +12.8% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001200) | $325K | $364K | +12.0% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 000600) | $240K | $267K | +11.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairbanks | $183K | $197K | $118K | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 000600) | $240K | $267K | $155K | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001700) | $297K | $328K | $154K | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001901) | $281K | $302K | $150K | |
| Fairbanks (Tract 000400) | $293K | $323K | $147K | |
| Fairbanks (Tract 000100) | $184K | $190K | $96K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.