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Kenai Peninsula, AK · ZIP 99603 · Census Tract 02122001000 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$383K
Downside (P10)
$342K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$420K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$624K
+63% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +63%. The model forecasts this with 63% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $253K | $257K | $262K | $263K | $272K | $287K | $303K | $336K | $352K | $378K | $383K | $389K | $397K | $420K | $388K |
| YoY Change | +1.8% | +1.9% | +0.4% | +3.2% | +5.4% | +5.6% | +11.2% | +4.6% | +7.3% | +1.5% | +1.5% | +2.0% | +5.9% | -7.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $362K | $347K | $342K | $343K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $482K | $527K | $624K | $446K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$362K to $482K
30.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$343K to $446K
26.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenai-Cook Inlet · Homer · (Tract 10) | $381K | $420K | +10.2% | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000900) | $404K | $459K | +13.5% | |
| Seward-Hope (Tract 000300) | $387K | $428K | +10.7% | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000400) | $339K | $347K | +2.2% | |
| Seward-Hope (Tract 001300) | $389K | $387K | -0.4% | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 001100) | $369K | $358K | -3.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenai-Cook Inlet · Homer · (Tract 10) | $381K | $420K | +10.2% | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000900) | $404K | $459K | +13.5% | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000600) | $283K | $320K | +12.9% | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 001200) | $226K | $252K | +11.7% | |
| Seward-Hope | $387K | $428K | +10.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenai-Cook Inlet · Homer · (Tract 10) | $381K | $420K | $282K | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000400) | $339K | $347K | $172K | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000800) | $253K | $272K | $164K | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000500) | $316K | $332K | $162K | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 001200) | $226K | $252K | $158K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.