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Jefferson, AL · ZIP 35126 · Census Tract 01073011208 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$200K
Downside (P10)
$172K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$224K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$319K
+60% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +60%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $127K | $125K | $130K | $127K | $129K | $132K | $140K | $161K | $184K | $192K | $200K | $205K | $212K | $224K |
| YoY Change | -1.7% | +4.6% | -2.5% | +1.6% | +1.9% | +6.5% | +14.8% | +14.3% | +4.2% | +4.0% | +2.9% | +3.4% | +5.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $179K | $174K | $172K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $246K | $290K | $319K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$179K to $246K
32.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$172K to $319K
65.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham · Pinson · (Tract 112.8) | $197K | $224K | +13.8% | |
| Gardendale | $198K | $218K | +10.0% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 005910) | $195K | $212K | +8.6% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 005903) | $203K | $215K | +6.1% | |
| Pleasant Grove | $195K | $203K | +4.1% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 005907) | $205K | $208K | +1.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham · Pinson · (Tract 112.8) | $197K | $224K | +13.8% | |
| Center Point | $133K | $160K | +20.4% | |
| Leeds | $125K | $150K | +20.0% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 012004) | $191K | $227K | +19.1% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 011210) | $181K | $214K | +18.3% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 002401) | $358K | $419K | +17.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham · Pinson · (Tract 112.8) | $197K | $224K | $147K | |
| Birmingham (Tract 001902) | $78K | $83K | $37K | |
| Birmingham (Tract 003500) | $77K | $80K | $35K | |
| Bessemer | $87K | $92K | $35K | |
| Birmingham (Tract 003300) | $52K | $55K | $32K | |
| Birmingham (Tract 013300) | $64K | $70K | $23K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.