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Tuscaloosa, AL · ZIP 35474 · Census Tract 01125010705 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$277K
Downside (P10)
$248K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$305K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$438K
+58% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +58%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $239K | $228K | $248K | $253K | $264K | $277K | $284K | $302K | $305K |
| YoY Change | -4.9% | +9.2% | +1.7% | +4.6% | +4.8% | +2.5% | +6.5% | +0.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $245K | $256K | $248K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $340K | $400K | $438K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$245K to $340K
33.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$248K to $438K
62.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Sandy-Duncanville | $272K | $305K | +12.1% | |
| Abernant | $279K | $324K | +16.0% | |
| Northport (Tract 010201) | $283K | $304K | +7.4% | |
| Northport (Tract 010404) | $266K | $283K | +6.4% | |
| Windham Springs | $278K | $294K | +6.1% | |
| Tuscaloosa | $292K | $304K | +3.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Sandy-Duncanville | $272K | $305K | +12.1% | |
| Tuscaloosa (Tract 012406) | $153K | $178K | +16.0% | |
| Abernant | $279K | $324K | +16.0% | |
| Tuscaloosa (Tract 011800) | $87K | $99K | +14.0% | |
| Samantha | $233K | $266K | +13.9% | |
| Tuscaloosa (Tract 012700) | $183K | $208K | +13.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Sandy-Duncanville | $272K | $305K | $190K | |
| Tuscaloosa (Tract 011701) | $114K | $129K | $73K | |
| Tuscaloosa (Tract 011902) | $157K | $167K | $71K | |
| Tuscaloosa (Tract 010500) | $119K | $121K | $68K | |
| Tuscaloosa (Tract 011800) | $87K | $99K | $46K | |
| Tuscaloosa (Tract 011703) | $113K | $126K | $45K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.