County 05775, AR · Census Tract 05775001685 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.55M
Downside (P10)
$615K
-60% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.17M
-25% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.05M
+32% by 2030
Base case: -25% by 2030, with a forecast range from -60% to +32%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 05775 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.6M | $1.5M | $1.3M | $1.2M | $1.2M |
| YoY Change | -3.0% | -15.6% | -4.0% | -4.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $853K | $644K | $638K | $615K | |
| Upside (P90) | $2.1M | $1.9M | $1.9M | $2.0M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$1.00M to $1.92M
59.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$615K to $2.05M
122.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000288 | $1.55M | $1.22M | -21.3% |
| Tract 000660 | $1.55M | $1.21M | -21.9% |
| Tract 001481 | $1.55M | $1.23M | -20.6% |
| Tract 002422 | $1.54M | $1.23M | -20.2% |
| Tract 001407 | $1.56M | $1.12M | -28.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001148 | $1.05M | $1.43M | +36.7% |
| Tract 000107 | $965K | $850K | -12.0% |
| Tract 002480 | $979K | $856K | -12.6% |
| Tract 001627 | $1.01M | $865K | -14.2% |
| Tract 001520 | $973K | $835K | -14.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001821 | $971K | $803K | $898K |
| Tract 000903 | $987K | $777K | $901K |
| Tract 001148 | $1.05M | $1.43M | $917K |
| Tract 001520 | $973K | $835K | $923K |
| Tract 000864 | $1.04M | $827K | $946K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources