County 05830, AR · Census Tract 05830290221 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$809K
Downside (P10)
$326K
-60% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$680K
-16% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.41M
+74% by 2030
Base case: -16% by 2030, with a forecast range from -60% to +74%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 05830 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $809K | $819K | $743K | $694K | $680K |
| YoY Change | +1.3% | -9.2% | -6.7% | -2.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $491K | $423K | $385K | $326K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.4M |
The forecast range is very wide. The gap between upside and downside scenarios is unusually large — treat any single-point estimate with caution. This often reflects sparse local data or significant market volatility.
1-Year Spread
$535K to $1.12M
72.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$326K to $1.41M
159.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 290027 | $717K | $538K | -25.0% |
| Tract 290409 | $601K | $528K | -12.2% |
| Tract 290548 | $1.04M | $785K | -24.3% |
| Tract 200004 | $576K | $626K | +8.7% |
| Tract 290687 | $1.25M | $931K | -25.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 200004 | $576K | $626K | +8.7% |
| Tract 290409 | $601K | $528K | -12.2% |
| Tract 290043 | $1.28M | $1.04M | -18.8% |
| Tract 290548 | $1.04M | $785K | -24.3% |
| Tract 290027 | $717K | $538K | -25.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 200004 | $576K | $626K | $646K |
| Tract 290409 | $601K | $528K | $781K |
| Tract 290043 | $1.28M | $1.04M | $826K |
| Tract 290027 | $717K | $538K | $852K |
| Tract 290548 | $1.04M | $785K | $986K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources