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Garland, AR · ZIP 71901 · Census Tract 05051010501 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$234K
Downside (P10)
$189K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$250K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$348K
+48% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $156K | $168K | $192K | $215K | $224K | $234K | $243K | $252K | $250K | $234K |
| YoY Change | +7.7% | +14.1% | +11.9% | +4.0% | +4.8% | +3.7% | +3.9% | -1.1% | -6.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $197K | $196K | $189K | $209K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $299K | $313K | $348K | $264K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$197K to $299K
42.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$209K to $264K
23.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whittington area | $231K | $250K | +8.2% | |
| Hot Springs (Tract 011601) | $241K | $257K | +6.9% | |
| Hale (Tract 011102) | $245K | $256K | +4.1% | |
| Hale (Tract 010302) | $249K | $272K | +9.4% | |
| Hale (Tract 012001) | $216K | $228K | +5.6% | |
| Hot Springs (Tract 011801) | $211K | $234K | +10.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whittington area | $231K | $250K | +8.2% | |
| Hot Springs (Tract 011400) | $115K | $129K | +12.7% | |
| Hot Springs (Tract 011801) | $211K | $234K | +10.7% | |
| Piney | $105K | $116K | +10.7% | |
| Hot Springs (Tract 010601) | $153K | $169K | +10.6% | |
| Hot Springs (Tract 011802) | $265K | $293K | +10.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whittington area | $231K | $250K | $159K | |
| Hot Springs (Tract 011702) | $96K | $104K | $35K | |
| Hale | $68K | $72K | $44K | |
| Hot Springs (Tract 010602) | $81K | $89K | $50K | |
| Piney | $105K | $116K | $64K | |
| Hot Springs (Tract 011500) | $116K | $120K | $67K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.