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Lincoln, AR · Census Tract 05079000507 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$82K
Downside (P10)
$58K
-29% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$119K
+45% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$204K
+149% by 2030
Base case: +45% by 2030, with a forecast range from -29% to +149%. The model forecasts this with 32% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $82K | $100K | $107K | $114K | $119K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$17,639 | +$24,974 | +$31,778 | +$36,672 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +21.5% | +30.5% | +38.8% | +44.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $80K | $72K | $64K | $58K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $133K | $163K | $189K | $204K |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$80K to $133K
53.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$58K to $204K
122.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000507 | $82K | $119K | +44.7% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 001206) | $74K | $116K | +58.1% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 000501) | $69K | $108K | +56.4% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 000713) | $78K | $115K | +47.1% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 001303) | $87K | $127K | +46.7% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 003009) | $72K | $91K | +26.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000507 | $82K | $119K | +44.7% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 001206) | $74K | $116K | +58.1% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 003003) | $103K | $161K | +56.6% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 000501) | $69K | $108K | +56.4% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 000601) | $64K | $94K | +47.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000507 | $82K | $119K | $146K | |
| Wells Bayou area | $102K | $108K | $79K | |
| Cane Creek | $126K | $135K | $56K | |
| Auburn area | $61K | $63K | $37K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Lincoln, AR · Census Tract 05079000507 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$82K
Downside (P10)
$58K
-29% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$119K
+45% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$204K
+149% by 2030
Base case: +45% by 2030, with a forecast range from -29% to +149%. The model forecasts this with 32% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $82K | $100K | $107K | $114K | $119K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$17,639 | +$24,974 | +$31,778 | +$36,672 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +21.5% | +30.5% | +38.8% | +44.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $80K | $72K | $64K | $58K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $133K | $163K | $189K | $204K |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$80K to $133K
53.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$58K to $204K
122.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000507 | $82K | $119K | +44.7% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 001206) | $74K | $116K | +58.1% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 000501) | $69K | $108K | +56.4% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 000713) | $78K | $115K | +47.1% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 001303) | $87K | $127K | +46.7% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 003009) | $72K | $91K | +26.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000507 | $82K | $119K | +44.7% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 001206) | $74K | $116K | +58.1% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 003003) | $103K | $161K | +56.6% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 000501) | $69K | $108K | +56.4% | |
| Lincoln (Tract 000601) | $64K | $94K | +47.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000507 | $82K | $119K | $146K | |
| Wells Bayou area | $102K | $108K | $79K | |
| Cane Creek | $126K | $135K | $56K | |
| Auburn area | $61K | $63K | $37K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
