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Sebastian, AR · ZIP 72923 · Census Tract 05131001308 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$146K
Downside (P10)
$110K
-24% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$144K
-1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$184K
+26% by 2030
Base case: -1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -24% to +26%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $96K | $103K | $125K | $120K | $142K | $146K | $147K | $145K | $144K |
| YoY Change | +7.4% | +20.8% | -3.7% | +18.4% | +2.4% | +1.1% | -1.5% | -0.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $120K | $116K | $110K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $171K | $186K | $184K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$120K to $171K
35.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$110K to $184K
50.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barling | $143K | $144K | +1.0% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000502) | $151K | $166K | +9.7% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000700) | $154K | $164K | +6.5% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000800) | $136K | $161K | +18.4% | |
| 3 | $159K | $170K | +6.5% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001309) | $160K | $190K | +18.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barling | $143K | $144K | +1.0% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001102) | $207K | $255K | +22.8% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001309) | $160K | $190K | +18.7% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000800) | $136K | $161K | +18.4% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001307) | $278K | $320K | +15.0% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001310) | $161K | $180K | +12.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barling | $143K | $144K | $73K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000400) | $67K | $73K | $38K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000300) | $84K | $90K | $47K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000200) | $97K | $107K | $49K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000100) | $108K | $114K | $51K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000501) | $106K | $114K | $52K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.