What is the home price forecast for Parcel 04005001602 in Oak Creek Canyon?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $768,737 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 4.6%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 04005001602 in Oak Creek Canyon?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $768,737 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 4.6%.

Markets Open Map

Explore Homecastr.

View parcel and neighborhood forecasts, compare markets, or build with the API.

Get Free API Key Get My Forecast Browse Markets

DocsStart Here Forecasts Data Catalog Benchmarks REST Quickstart

Loading forecast data...

Parcel 04005001602 (Oak Creek Canyon) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 04005001602, Oak Creek Canyon Home Price Forecast

Coconino, AZ · ZIP 86336 · Census Tract 04005001602 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

Copy a share-ready forecast link for notes, client emails, or community posts.

Current modeled value

$769K

Downside (P10)

$649K

-16% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$804K

+5% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$1.10M

+43% by 2030

Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$493K	$537K	$653K	$614K	$733K	$769K	$760K	$786K	$804K
Growth $ vs 2026	-$276,237	-$231,937	-$116,037	-$154,937	-$35,437		-$8,862	+$17,286	+$35,493
Growth % vs 2026	-35.9%	-30.2%	-15.1%	-20.2%	-4.6%		-1.2%	+2.2%	+4.6%
Downside (P10)							$628K	$642K	$649K
Upside (P90)							$929K	$1.1M	$1.1M

Forecast Confidence

69%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.

Near-term band

$628K to $929K

39.7% of median

Long-horizon band

$649K to $1.1M

55.6% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: moderate growth expected5yr expected: +4.6% · Spread: 56%

·The forecast implies relatively stable values through the full horizon, with modest movements in either direction.
·The base case is supported by stable local demand and a moderate medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 04005001602, Oak Creek Canyon on map

Open Full Map ↗

Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).