What is the home price forecast for Tract F00100?

Homecastr forecasts Tract F00100 median home values at $195,697 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 49.5%.

How confident is the Tract F00100 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $215,043 (downside) to $402,338 (upside), with a spread of 64% of median.

Tract F00100 Home Price Forecast

County 04369, AZ · Census Tract 04369F00100 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$196K

Downside (P10)

$215K

+10% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$293K

+50% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$402K

+106% by 2030

Base case: +50% by 2030, with a forecast range from +10% to +106%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 04369 markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Median Value	$196K	$232K	$262K	$277K	$293K
YoY Change		+18.7%	+12.8%	+5.8%	+5.6%
Downside (P10)		$200K	$208K	$210K	$215K
Upside (P90)		$284K	$336K	$368K	$402K

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.

1-Year Spread

$178K to $227K

25.0% of median

5-Year Spread

$215K to $402K

64.0% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +49.5% · Spread: 64%

·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract F00103	$157K	$251K	+60.2%
Tract B00200	$143K	$212K	+48.8%
Tract C00101	$117K	$173K	+47.2%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract F00103	$157K	$251K	+60.2%
Tract B00200	$143K	$212K	+48.8%
Tract C00101	$117K	$173K	+47.2%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
Tract B00200	$143K	$212K	$185K
Tract C00101	$117K	$173K	$197K

Location

Tract F00100 on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).