County 04480, AZ · Census Tract 04480240004 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$763K
Downside (P10)
$447K
-41% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$767K
+0% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.26M
+65% by 2030
Base case: +0% by 2030, with a forecast range from -41% to +65%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 04480 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $763K | $812K | $748K | $733K | $767K |
| YoY Change | +6.5% | -7.9% | -2.0% | +4.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $584K | $449K | $452K | $447K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.3M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$637K to $949K
41.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$447K to $1.26M
106.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 360007 | $743K | $764K | +2.8% |
| Tract 440008 | $741K | $843K | +13.7% |
| Tract 600000 | $734K | $774K | +5.4% |
| Tract 120001 | $716K | $766K | +7.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 440008 | $741K | $843K | +13.7% |
| Tract 120001 | $716K | $766K | +7.0% |
| Tract 600000 | $734K | $774K | +5.4% |
| Tract 360007 | $743K | $764K | +2.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 600000 | $734K | $774K | $852K |
| Tract 120001 | $716K | $766K | $870K |
| Tract 440008 | $741K | $843K | $924K |
| Tract 360007 | $743K | $764K | $999K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources