Loading forecast data...
Ready to see your forecast?
Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Loading forecast data...
Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Coconino, AZ · ZIP 86040 · Census Tract 04005942201 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$80K
Downside (P10)
$72K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$86K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$114K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $72K | $58K | $54K | $51K | $55K | $65K | $69K | $81K | $87K | $80K | $80K | $83K | $85K | $86K | $83K |
| YoY Change | -18.8% | -7.4% | -6.5% | +8.5% | +18.6% | +5.2% | +18.7% | +7.5% | -9.0% | +0.9% | +3.0% | +3.2% | +0.9% | -4.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $70K | $71K | $72K | $74K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $96K | $110K | $114K | $93K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$70K to $96K
30.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$74K to $93K
22.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuba City | $81K | $86K | +6.2% | |
| Tuba City (Tract 942202) | $57K | $66K | +16.2% | |
| Tuba City (Tract 945100) | $62K | $70K | +12.3% | |
| Tuba City (Tract 944900) | $89K | $98K | +10.4% | |
| Tuba City (Tract 945000) | $53K | $58K | +9.3% | |
| Tuba City (Tract 945200) | $58K | $63K | +7.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuba City | $81K | $86K | +6.2% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 001101) | $614K | $744K | +21.0% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000302) | $394K | $458K | +16.2% | |
| Tuba City | $57K | $66K | +16.2% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000601) | $692K | $800K | +15.7% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000901) | $681K | $781K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuba City | $81K | $86K | $42K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 945200) | $58K | $63K | $47K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 942202) | $57K | $66K | $39K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 944900) | $89K | $98K | $38K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 945000) | $53K | $58K | $36K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 945100) | $62K | $70K | $30K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.