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Phoenix, AZ · ZIP 85226 · Census Tract 04013810900 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$444K
Downside (P10)
$375K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$453K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$752K
+69% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +69%. The model forecasts this with 54% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $186K | $211K | $232K | $249K | $280K | $317K | $336K | $373K | $420K | $445K | $444K | $442K | $438K | $453K |
| YoY Change | +13.7% | +10.0% | +7.2% | +12.5% | +13.3% | +6.0% | +10.9% | +12.6% | +6.0% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.8% | +3.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $389K | $374K | $375K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $585K | $664K | $752K |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. Short-term confidence is moderate but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$389K to $585K
44.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$375K to $752K
83.2% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources