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Phoenix, AZ · ZIP 85004 · Census Tract 04013111800 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$523K
Downside (P10)
$396K
-24% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$521K
-0% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$910K
+74% by 2030
Base case: -0% by 2030, with a forecast range from -24% to +74%. The model forecasts this with 46% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $297K | $315K | $338K | $349K | $367K | $418K | $422K | $527K | $527K | $524K | $523K | $529K | $538K | $521K |
| YoY Change | +6.2% | +7.4% | +3.2% | +5.3% | +13.9% | +0.8% | +25.1% | -0.1% | -0.5% | -0.3% | +1.2% | +1.6% | -3.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $443K | $440K | $396K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $681K | $705K | $910K |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. Short-term confidence is moderate but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$443K to $681K
45.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$396K to $910K
98.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downtown Phoenix | $521K | $521K | +0.0% | |
| Chandler | $522K | $591K | +13.1% | |
| Goodyear | $523K | $560K | +7.1% | |
| Scottsdale | $524K | $537K | +2.5% | |
| Gilbert | $522K | $535K | +2.4% | |
| North Mountain | $520K | $527K | +1.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downtown Phoenix | $521K | $521K | +0.0% | |
| Tempe | $434K | $543K | +25.1% | |
| Papago | $218K | $268K | +23.0% | |
| South Mountain | $295K | $359K | +21.8% | |
| Scottsdale | $548K | $666K | +21.5% | |
| Downtown Phoenix | $361K | $436K | +20.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downtown Phoenix | $521K | $521K | $514K | |
| Mesa (Tract 420708) | $57K | $63K | $30K | |
| Mesa (Tract 422659) | $64K | $71K | $28K | |
| Peoria | $58K | $63K | $25K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.