What is the home price forecast for Parcel 04019004438 in Marana · Tucson · (Tract 44.38)?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $362,176 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 2.3%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 04019004438 in Marana · Tucson · (Tract 44.38)?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $362,176 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 2.3%.

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Parcel 04019004438 (Marana) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 04019004438, Marana · Tucson · (Tract 44.38) Home Price Forecast

Tucson, AZ · ZIP 85743 · Census Tract 04019004438 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$362K

Downside (P10)

$316K

-13% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$370K

+2% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$523K

+44% by 2030

Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$253K	$261K	$292K	$330K	$351K	$362K	$367K	$368K	$370K
Growth $ vs 2026	-$109,176	-$101,276	-$69,876	-$32,476	-$11,376		+$4,569	+$5,772	+$8,173
Growth % vs 2026	-30.1%	-28.0%	-19.3%	-9.0%	-3.1%		+1.3%	+1.6%	+2.3%
Downside (P10)							$325K	$329K	$316K
Upside (P90)							$432K	$497K	$523K

Forecast Confidence

69%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.

Near-term band

$325K to $432K

29.0% of median

Long-horizon band

$316K to $523K

56.0% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: roughly flat5yr expected: +2.3% · Spread: 56%

·The forecast implies relatively stable values through the full horizon, with modest movements in either direction.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 04019004438, Marana · Tucson · (Tract 44.38) on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).