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Tucson, AZ · ZIP 85741 · Census Tract 04019004624 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$309K
Downside (P10)
$228K
-26% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$327K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$464K
+50% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -26% to +50%. The model forecasts this with 60% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $157K | $161K | $166K | $175K | $200K | $224K | $232K | $264K | $273K | $312K | $309K | $317K | $329K | $327K |
| YoY Change | +2.0% | +3.5% | +5.3% | +14.3% | +12.1% | +3.2% | +14.1% | +3.2% | +14.2% | -0.9% | +2.8% | +3.7% | -0.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $245K | $251K | $228K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $405K | $425K | $464K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$245K to $405K
50.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$228K to $464K
72.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casas Adobes | $314K | $327K | +4.2% | |
| Casas Adobes | $309K | $347K | +12.3% | |
| Drexel Heights | $308K | $330K | +7.1% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004413) | $308K | $329K | +6.7% | |
| Tucson (Tract 003003) | $307K | $352K | +14.7% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004414) | $311K | $366K | +17.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casas Adobes | $314K | $327K | +4.2% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004649) | $891K | $1.08M | +21.4% | |
| Tucson (Tract 000300) | $332K | $402K | +21.2% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004620) | $519K | $618K | +19.1% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004077) | $319K | $379K | +19.0% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004047) | $393K | $467K | +18.6% |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.