Loading forecast data...
Loading forecast data...
Tucson, AZ · ZIP 85757 · Census Tract 04019941000 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$114K
Downside (P10)
$98K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$124K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$158K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $77K | $79K | $84K | $91K | $86K | $91K | $101K | $121K | $145K | $108K | $114K | $119K | $120K | $124K |
| YoY Change | +3.3% | +6.2% | +8.5% | -5.7% | +5.4% | +11.3% | +19.9% | +20.1% | -25.5% | +5.3% | +4.4% | +1.3% | +2.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $99K | $100K | $98K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $134K | $151K | $158K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$99K to $134K
30.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$98K to $158K
48.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arivaca | $111K | $124K | +11.8% | |
| Flowing Wells | $112K | $132K | +17.5% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004035) | $117K | $127K | +9.2% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004039) | $119K | $129K | +8.2% | |
| Ajo | $123K | $128K | +3.9% | |
| Tucson (Tract 003706) | $138K | $156K | +12.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arivaca | $111K | $124K | +11.8% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004649) | $891K | $1.08M | +21.4% | |
| Tucson (Tract 000300) | $332K | $402K | +21.2% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004620) | $519K | $618K | +19.1% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004077) | $319K | $379K | +19.0% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004047) | $393K | $467K | +18.6% |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.