What is the home price forecast for Parcel 04019000401 in Tucson · 85705 · (Tract 4.1)?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $382,311 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 9.5%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 04019000401 in Tucson · 85705 · (Tract 4.1)?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $382,311 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 9.5%.

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Parcel 04019000401 (Tucson) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 04019000401, Tucson · 85705 · (Tract 4.1) Home Price Forecast

Tucson, AZ · ZIP 85705 · Census Tract 04019000401 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$382K

Downside (P10)

$322K

-16% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$419K

+9% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$546K

+43% by 2030

Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$260K	$288K	$292K	$352K	$377K	$382K	$388K	$401K	$419K
Growth $ vs 2026	-$121,911	-$94,711	-$90,111	-$30,611	-$5,311		+$5,677	+$18,444	+$36,313
Growth % vs 2026	-31.9%	-24.8%	-23.6%	-8.0%	-1.4%		+1.5%	+4.8%	+9.5%
Downside (P10)							$322K	$324K	$322K
Upside (P90)							$458K	$481K	$546K

Forecast Confidence

71%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.

Near-term band

$322K to $458K

35.1% of median

Long-horizon band

$322K to $546K

53.6% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: moderate growth expected5yr expected: +9.5% · Spread: 54%

·The base case is supported by stable local demand and a moderate medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 04019000401, Tucson · 85705 · (Tract 4.1) on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).