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Yavapai, AZ · ZIP 86351 · Census Tract 04025001705 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$774K
Downside (P10)
$633K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$825K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.09M
+41% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $475K | $527K | $609K | $654K | $741K | $774K | $773K | $807K | $825K | $769K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$298,339 | -$246,739 | -$165,139 | -$119,339 | -$32,839 | -$645 | +$33,286 | +$51,386 | -$4,371 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -38.6% | -31.9% | -21.3% | -15.4% | -4.2% | -0.1% | +4.3% | +6.6% | -0.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $690K | $674K | $633K | $677K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $870K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$690K to $1.0M
40.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$677K to $870K
25.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Village of Oak Creek (Big Park) | $752K | $825K | +9.7% | |
| Camp Verde-Sedona | $757K | $840K | +11.0% | |
| Prescott (Tract 001202) | $703K | $778K | +10.8% | |
| Prescott (Tract 001105) | $675K | $741K | +9.7% | |
| Prescott (Tract 000901) | $705K | $770K | +9.2% | |
| Prescott (Tract 001201) | $877K | $937K | +6.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Village of Oak Creek (Big Park) | $752K | $825K | +9.7% | |
| Prescott Valley (Tract 000614) | $233K | $275K | +17.9% | |
| Prescott Valley (Tract 000615) | $372K | $435K | +17.0% | |
| Prescott (Tract 000406) | $571K | $665K | +16.5% | |
| Prescott (Tract 000403) | $401K | $467K | +16.4% | |
| Prescott (Tract 001300) | $51K | $59K | +15.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Village of Oak Creek (Big Park) | $752K | $825K | $461K | |
| Cordes Lakes-Mayer | $238K | $244K | $126K | |
| Chino Valley | $261K | $274K | $120K | |
| Congress | $247K | $267K | $100K | |
| Ash Fork | $170K | $182K | $84K | |
| Prescott | $51K | $59K | $30K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Yavapai, AZ · ZIP 86351 · Census Tract 04025001705 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$774K
Downside (P10)
$633K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$825K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.09M
+41% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $475K | $527K | $609K | $654K | $741K | $774K | $773K | $807K | $825K | $769K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$298,339 | -$246,739 | -$165,139 | -$119,339 | -$32,839 | -$645 | +$33,286 | +$51,386 | -$4,371 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -38.6% | -31.9% | -21.3% | -15.4% | -4.2% | -0.1% | +4.3% | +6.6% | -0.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $690K | $674K | $633K | $677K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $870K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$690K to $1.0M
40.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$677K to $870K
25.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Village of Oak Creek (Big Park) | $752K | $825K | +9.7% | |
| Camp Verde-Sedona | $757K | $840K | +11.0% | |
| Prescott (Tract 001202) | $703K | $778K | +10.8% | |
| Prescott (Tract 001105) | $675K | $741K | +9.7% | |
| Prescott (Tract 000901) | $705K | $770K | +9.2% | |
| Prescott (Tract 001201) | $877K | $937K | +6.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Village of Oak Creek (Big Park) | $752K | $825K | +9.7% | |
| Prescott Valley (Tract 000614) | $233K | $275K | +17.9% | |
| Prescott Valley (Tract 000615) | $372K | $435K | +17.0% | |
| Prescott (Tract 000406) | $571K | $665K | +16.5% | |
| Prescott (Tract 000403) | $401K | $467K | +16.4% | |
| Prescott (Tract 001300) | $51K | $59K | +15.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Village of Oak Creek (Big Park) | $752K | $825K | $461K | |
| Cordes Lakes-Mayer | $238K | $244K | $126K | |
| Chino Valley | $261K | $274K | $120K | |
| Congress | $247K | $267K | $100K | |
| Ash Fork | $170K | $182K | $84K | |
| Prescott | $51K | $59K | $30K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
