County 06280, CA · Census Tract 06280520003 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.67M
Downside (P10)
$725K
-57% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.19M
-29% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.72M
+3% by 2030
Base case: -29% by 2030, with a forecast range from -57% to +3%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 06280 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.7M | $1.6M | $1.4M | $1.2M | $1.2M |
| YoY Change | -4.3% | -12.7% | -11.1% | -4.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.2M | $929K | $801K | $725K | |
| Upside (P90) | $2.1M | $1.8M | $1.7M | $1.7M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.35M to $1.93M
34.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$725K to $1.72M
83.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 680008 | $1.70M | $1.48M | -13.2% |
| Tract 360001 | $1.56M | $1.16M | -25.1% |
| Tract 080006 | $2.70M | $1.80M | -33.2% |
| Tract 840000 | $2.71M | $1.89M | -30.5% |
| Tract 720007 | $2.72M | $1.97M | -27.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 680008 | $1.70M | $1.48M | -13.2% |
| Tract 360001 | $1.56M | $1.16M | -25.1% |
| Tract 720007 | $2.72M | $1.97M | -27.6% |
| Tract 080103 | $3.97M | $2.79M | -29.7% |
| Tract 840000 | $2.71M | $1.89M | -30.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 080103 | $3.97M | $2.79M | $794K |
| Tract 080006 | $2.70M | $1.80M | $1.06M |
| Tract 360001 | $1.56M | $1.16M | $1.21M |
| Tract 680008 | $1.70M | $1.48M | $1.26M |
| Tract 720007 | $2.72M | $1.97M | $1.41M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources